June 2, 2022
For quite some time, I’ve wanted to create a series of videos that details the methods we use to pick weather for passages. It’s not that I claim to be an expert, it’s just that after doing this for a lot of years now, I feel like I’m getting pretty good.
As is typical for cruisers, our conversations with others almost always turn to weather and I’m often shocked at the important factors many people ignore. This latest round of boats leaving NZ in absolutely terrible weather windows is a perfect example of that.
Here’s video number one. I’ll do a new one each day until we find a weather window to get from Noumea, New Caledonia to Gladstone, Australia. We’ll follow it up with a video showing how our window selection actually worked out.
Without further adiue…
Episode 1
Here’s a little table of contents so you can jump to any subject that interests you. If you view these videos on YouTube, you can use the links in the description to jump directly to the sections that interest you.
0:00 Intro to the Series
0:34 Our Goal for this Passage
1:02 PredictWind Tool
1:22 Using the Isobar Map
2:43 Different Models and the Validation Tool
4:52 Sea State
5:48 Weather Routing on PredictWind
7:24 Viewing Data in Table View
9:39 Wave Direction Visually on the Map
10:44 Wind Speed and Angles on the Routing Data
12:04 Routing Boat Settings (Polars)
13:35 Routing Summary Page
15:46 Departure Planning Tool
17:53 Routing and Planning Model Selection
Episode 2
Here’s our second day of looking for a weather window from New Cal to Oz. Hint: No good window in sight.
Here’s a table of contents so you can jump to any subject that interests you. If you view these videos on YouTube, you can use the links in the description to jump directly to the sections that interest you.
0:00 Introduction to Episode 2
0:23 More on the Validation Tool
1:10 First Step: Isobar Map
3:03 More Data on ECMWF
3:40 Seas for Possible Window
4:14 Another Weather Routing
7:33 New Data on Summary Page our Routing
7:59 Subtle Front Shown on Wind Page
9:04 Another Window?
Episode 3
With no real passage window on the horizon, what shall we do? Here’s a quick look at a possible window and some local weather planning for a few days out in New Caledonia’s lagoon.
Here’s a table of contents so you can jump to any subject that interests you. If you view these videos on YouTube, you can use the links in the description to jump directly to the sections that interest you.
0:00 Intro
0:07 Isobar Map Looking for Window
0:43 Wave Map – Big Waves?
1:20 How Many Days of Data for Each Model?
1:51 ECMWF vs. GFS
2:34 Plan B? Local Weather Forecast
3:11 Cloud Map
3:23 Rain Map and Front
3:34 Forecast Tables
4:25 Wind to Get Back
Episode 4
Table of Contents:
0:00 Intro
0:08 Short Cruise While We Wait
0:14 Fastest Time vs. Comfort
2:07 Steepness Factor, Wave Height, and Period
Bob McDavitt’s Weathergram mentioned in the vid
Download spreadsheet for new PW format: steepness factor 3
Download the spreadsheet here: comfort factor
Episode 5
In this episode (episode 5) I talk about the amazing new wave data on PredictWind.
Table of Contents:
0:00 Introduction
0:06 Isobar Map Overview of Passage
1:35 Routing
2:24 Table View
3:27 New Wave Data from PredictWind
5:19 Wave Polar Help Article and Definitions
6:13 Looking Closely at Wave Numbers
7:44 Passage Summary Data
9:55 Another Look at the Map
10:52 How to Set Up Wave Polars
11:47 A Plea to Get a Pro Subscription
12:41 Summary (kind of)
Links:
The help article mentioned in the video is here.
PredictWind help article about models used.
Here’s a wikipedia article about ECMWF ensemble data.
The rest of the video series can be found here.
Download spreadsheet for new PW format: steepness factor 3
Spreadsheet for Pro Version Data.
Episode 6
This is part 6 in the series…
Still no weather we like to get from Noumea, New Caledonia to Gladstone, Australia. Here we look at waves and resist the temptation to take a window that would definitely be unpleasant. Table of Contents:
0:00 Intro
0:09 No Weather Window in Sight
0:30 Resisting Temptation (to take a bad window)
0:54 Steep Seas are the Issue
1:25 Steepness Factor (revisited)
2:30 Happily Waiting for Better Weather
Links:
Bob McDavitt’s Weathergram Mentioning Steepness Factor
Episode 7
We’re still looking for a weather window to sail from New Caledonia to Australia. There still isn’t a great one in sight but we investigate a possible window using the PredictWind Offshore App.
Table of Contents:
0:00 Intro
0:14 Dangerous Words!
0:30 Isobar Map
0:52 First Window Possibility
1:37 Using the PredictWind Offshore App
4:06 Evaluating the Data
Episode 8
After more than six weeks of looking, maybe there’s a suitable weather window on the horizon?
Table of Contents:
0:00 Intro
0:23 Isobar Map Analysis
1:20 Waves
2:06 Departure Planning
4:28 Weather Routing
6:06 Spreadsheet Wave Analysis
Episode 9
It’s finally here: a weather window that we can accept. Here’s what’s going on including the compromises we’re willing to make after two and a half months of looking and waiting.
Contents:
0:00 Intro
0:20 Help from a Pro
0:55 PredictWind Route
1:28 Table View
2:38 Spreadsheet View of Waves
3:11 Sold: We’ll Take It. (For better or worse)
Episode 10 – the Final Episode and Post-Mortem
This is the final episode in this series and is a post-mortem of the passage: what we did right, what we didn’t, and the lessons we learned.
Table of contents:
0:00 Intro
0:33 Departure Forecast
1:16 Day 1
1:37 Day 2
2:35 Day 3
3:20 Day 4
3:48 Day 5
4:08 Day 6
4:55 Final Day
5:15 Forecast Comparisons
7:16 Lessons Learned
Bonus Episode – Historical Weather Tools
Our friend is planning to sail from NZ to Oz in November and we were talking about tools to view historical weather data. Here’s my two cents worth in this video.
I threw the ‘zone of misery” in as a bonus.
I’m sorry about the audio quality on this video. I have a failing mic and promise to replace it soon.
Table of contents
0:00 Intro
0:20 Pilot Charts
1:04 PredictWind Historical Weather
1:51 earth.nulschool.net Historical Weather
4:45 Zone of Misery or Misery Index (MI)
