September 4, 2023
This morning, after reading Bob McDavitt’s Weathergram, I was trying learn more about the MJO as it’s coming to visit us in Indonesia this week. I went to NOAA’s website about the MJO and immediately stumbled into this very confusing paragraph…
Forecast of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the ensemble mean GFS based on forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. – only the MJO.
I’m positive (negative) that I don’t (do) understand, so I asked ChatGPT the following:
I don’t understand this paragraph. Can you explain it to me like I’m 5?
And Chat came to my rescue:
Of course! Let’s break it down:
Imagine the Earth has a big weather “dance” going on. This dance has different moves or patterns that change the weather. One of these dance moves is called the MJO.
Now, scientists have a special tool (like a magic crystal ball) called the GFS. This tool tries to guess what the MJO dance move will look like in the next 15 days. But it’s not just one guess; they make many guesses and then take an average, which they call the “ensemble mean.”
To understand the dance move better, they look at two things: RMM1 and RMM2. Think of these as two special clues that help them guess the MJO dance move.
Now, for the colors:
Blue means there will be more clouds and rain (they call this “enhanced convection”).
Yellow or red means there will be fewer clouds and less rain (they call this “suppressed convection”).
Lastly, even though there are many other dance moves (like ENSO or monsoons) that can change the weather, this guess is only about the MJO dance move. They’re not looking at the other moves right now.
So, in simple words, scientists are using a tool to guess how a specific weather pattern (MJO) will change the clouds and rain in the next 15 days. Blue means more rain, and yellow/red means less rain. And they’re only focusing on this one pattern, not the others.
After that, I felt like we needed an AI generated image…
(I’m not really sure why she has a pencil-thin mustache and a goatee).
-Rich
