November 3, 2012
It was the tail end of October when we headed out on this final trip to the anchorages, and now we were into November. By now, the vast majority of the cruising fleet had left Neiafu and was headed south.
Many of the boats were cruising the Ha’apai Group of islands, while a few others were in Port Maurelle (still in Vava’u) preparing to head south. A good portion of the fleet had been in Nuku’alofa (the southernmost island in Tonga) and were now making the big jump to New Zealand as it looked to be a good weather window. Rich and I were not in any of these groups; instead were in the small minority who were opting to stay longer.
There were many reasons people had for leaving for New Zealand this early, and one of the biggest was having non-refundable plane tickets. November is the transition month to cyclone season, and back in the US, that translates into a belief that you need to leave the tropics by then. Thus people go ahead and buy plane tickets to return to their home countries for the holiday season. Unfortunately, for these tickets to be affordable, you need to buy early (before you make the pacific crossing) and go non-refundable. (We heard unconfirmed rumors that prices were now as high as eight thousand dollars for last-minute flights to the states!) Also, many boat insurance companies require you be south by early to mid-November and won’t insure boats in the tropics after that; so some people left for insurance reasons.
There were other reasons for leaving, too. One was the planned welcome festivities to be held in Opua in early November, with parties, seminars, tours, etc. Another was that a lot of people were physically or mentally done with Tonga. While Rich and I were in our burnout-recovery period and sitting in Neiafu, other people were actively cruising the islands of Vava’u and Ha’apai and had made it to Nuku’alofa–they had now finished seeing Tonga. Others were just done with the tropics and needed a change of lifestyle and scenery–these were the people going straight from Neiafu. Finally, a few were just anxious to put the passage behind them and wanted to grab that first weather window to New Zealand. There was a bit of sheep mentality, too (aka doing something because everyone else is doing it). All in all, this meant a massive movement of boats in and around Tonga.
Which brings me to what happened next. It was late Saturday afternoon, and we planned to head back to Neiafu the following day. I was talking on the radio to a friend who was in Port Maurelle waiting to jump off to New Zealand. He asked if I knew about the possible weather coming. I had no idea–what weather? He was using a weather router, Commander Weather, who had warned him that something nasty might be forming and not to leave for New Zealand but instead to head back to Neiafu by Tuesday. We could expect to see wind gusts here as high as 45 knots and would need to in a well-protected anchorage.
I wasn’t too alarmed as we’d be heading back to Neiafu the following morning, and with all the people gone there would be plenty of moorings available. But we were concerned about some of our friends. We knew people who had just left Nuku’alofa and Neiafu for New Zealand. We also had a few friends cruising around the Ha’apai Islands which have almost no well-protected anchorages. We wondered what they’d do and figured they’d probably head down to Nuku’alofa with its good anchorage and a small marina. For the time being, we’d have to wait and see if this thing actually formed and if so, how bad it would be. -Cyndi
